Badmofo's Stock Chat

Early morning post.

We're at a cross-roads. 10500 DOW is still what I'm watching. The market has been repelled by this multi-decade trend line - I've mentioned several times in the last few months.

If the market can BREAK to the upside *****AND**** hold this level, then I'll feel the bear is done, and we move on. However, I see this as a big task, given the weakness in the technicals.

Semi-log of the SPX shows a break of the trend.

… Continue

The market has been moving sideways and finally hit 10500. This is a *very* good place to be taking profit from long positions and waiting to see what happens or being short.

Long term I mentioned the 10400-10500 DOW level in semi-log scale October 14th. Since then we have hit this level and tested this resistance line, again and again. We have been at this level for OVER a month... gaining nothing. This means that this line *is* indeed real, and has been strong enough to hold the market back t… Continue

I joined ST about October/November 2008. I've been posting almost a year now.

My posting has always been for myself and friends. This is more of a journal and a place to get my thoughts on virtual PAPER than anything else.

Way back at the end of 2007 most of the news media, and some of the technical EW gurus I follow(ed) were bullish. At that time AAPL was at 200 and suggestions were made that 300 was in the cards.... that nothing could slow down the Nasdaq gravy train. Luckily I cashed out of… Continue

Bears are getting rattled. It serves the market well.

Last week everyone had their sights on a weak minor 2 wave up. Now there is doubt across the board on the EW front. This is EXACTLY what is needed. Too much confidence in any one direction = NULLIFIED.

I try to refrain from too much analysis. The trick is finding the TREND, not the turning points. The Trend can only be found AFTER a reversal. EW tries to set targets for LIKELY points.... you can certainly trade targets, but you should trade… Continue

Howdy.

The market has likely been in a wave 2 rally since late last week. Personally I think it's had enough time and/or price to suggest that it's finished - or nearing completion.

There's some weakness this morning prior to open... time will tell.

The $VIX has now retraced "enough" of the rise from the lows to suggest further rally for the $VIX and decline for the $SPX.

… Continue