Market Update (BMF) - 06/29
Evening folks ;)
A few interesting things have happened in the last few days that warrant a posting.
First, let's recap the last entry from the Thursday 25th :
The DJIA appears to be limited to the .618 retrace or 8650. The SPX looks to be able to rally to the 930 level in a more complex correction and strong resistance.
I'm going to side with the DJIA this evening. The bearish case is still very much alive... this would be wave 2 up. There is still room for a bit of upside tomorrow, but I would imagine it'll be choppy.
On the VIX front, while we declined in a steep drop, the VIX still holding the RSI trend-line. My count is still valid as long as the RSI holds.
The SPX and DJIA have both crept higher. DJIA and SPX are sitting at the .50 level.
Now, I'm labeling the SPX as a complete abc from the lows. If it breaks much higher, something very bullish may be developing in the markets.
The VIX has made a new low *and* broke the RSI trend-line. This opens the door that the recent spikes were a complex wave 4 correction. I'm bearish, so this one hurt a bit :)
On the BPSPX and CPCE front are two charts. BPSPX appears ready for new lows in my opinion. CPCE is now outside my trendline from a few weeks ago. Both are bearish for the market.
DTO, while having a solid decline today still looks alright for higher prices, but we're at a tipping point. If we head any lower, then a test of the lows could happen. It's still holding the RSI trendline.
And to round out the day, take a look at the current Commitment of Traders report from Friday. Finally a change. Commercials *closed* lots of open short positions. This could be bullish. However, if it is, commercials got their asses handed to them over the last few months while Joe Public was making BANK. Looks like this round Retailers did a better job of timing the swing from 3/28.
A few interesting things have happened in the last few days that warrant a posting.
First, let's recap the last entry from the Thursday 25th :
The DJIA appears to be limited to the .618 retrace or 8650. The SPX looks to be able to rally to the 930 level in a more complex correction and strong resistance.
I'm going to side with the DJIA this evening. The bearish case is still very much alive... this would be wave 2 up. There is still room for a bit of upside tomorrow, but I would imagine it'll be choppy.
On the VIX front, while we declined in a steep drop, the VIX still holding the RSI trend-line. My count is still valid as long as the RSI holds.
The SPX and DJIA have both crept higher. DJIA and SPX are sitting at the .50 level.
Now, I'm labeling the SPX as a complete abc from the lows. If it breaks much higher, something very bullish may be developing in the markets.
The VIX has made a new low *and* broke the RSI trend-line. This opens the door that the recent spikes were a complex wave 4 correction. I'm bearish, so this one hurt a bit :)
On the BPSPX and CPCE front are two charts. BPSPX appears ready for new lows in my opinion. CPCE is now outside my trendline from a few weeks ago. Both are bearish for the market.
DTO, while having a solid decline today still looks alright for higher prices, but we're at a tipping point. If we head any lower, then a test of the lows could happen. It's still holding the RSI trendline.
And to round out the day, take a look at the current Commitment of Traders report from Friday. Finally a change. Commercials *closed* lots of open short positions. This could be bullish. However, if it is, commercials got their asses handed to them over the last few months while Joe Public was making BANK. Looks like this round Retailers did a better job of timing the swing from 3/28.
Add a Comment
-
Comment by badmofo1024 on July 1, 2009 at 8:51am -
On the SPX just wanted to mention that the 930 rally *was* .618. On the DJIA it's .50.
With the DJIA showing impulsive down and the SPX being corrective down... Interesting.
-
Comment by badmofo1024 on June 30, 2009 at 12:27pm
-
Schweizer, yep. Looks like the SPX reversed @ the 930 "c".
The DJIA crapped out *hard* at 8560, 7 points shy of the .500. This was not ideal, but I'm certainly not surprised.
I've been waiting *patiently* for MAJOR 3 down.
What I wanted to mention last night is that .618 would have been ideal for the bears, as it could have solidified MINOR wave 2 up of MAJOR 3 down. However, if .50 is all we get, I'm afraid I'll have to watch more carefully for a *correction* to the downside... as the impulsive down from 955 can be A of an ABC where B retraces .50.
Maybe it'll still develop as MAJOR 3, I'll keep my eye on it.
-
Comment by Schweizer on June 30, 2009 at 7:30am -
$INDU EOM. No cigar, Mr. DOW. You're going down. Game over.
© 2009 Created by Scott Myles on Ning. Create a Ning Network!
You need to be a member of StockTock Social to add comments!
Join this Ning Network